U.S. CIS Releases Q1 FY2026 EB-5 Data: What It Means for Families

The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has recently published official data for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (October 1 – December 31, 2025). For families who are monitoring the situation or preparing to file, what does the current policy landscape actually look like? How can we identify the most secure pathway to a Green Card from these figures?

EB-5 RIA Filing Trends – Understanding the Shifts

According to the data, in Q1 FY2026, global EB-5 RIA filings totaled 1,765 petitions. Of these:

● Regional Center (I-526E): 1,667 filings, accounting for 95%

● Direct Investment (I-526): 98 filings, just 5%

Consistent with past trends, the Regional Center model remains the dominant choice. As of the data release, the pending inventory for New Law Regional Center petitions stood at 9,734 cases.

Rural Projects Gain Edge; India Surpasses China in Some Categories

Country-specific data for Q1 FY2026 shows that Chinese- and Indian-born applicants continue to represent a significant share:

● Urban (High-Unemployment) Projects:

○ Total filings: 556

○ China: 156 (28%)

○ India: 184 (33%)

● Rural Projects:

○ Total filings: 977

○ China: 430 (44%)

○ India: 407 (41%)

Rural projects are the top choice for applicants from both countries. They benefit from 20% reserved visa quotas and priority processing, leading to relatively faster adjudication.

Over 80% Approval Rate – Still a Leader in Global Immigration

The data shows that the I-526E denial rate in Q1 FY2026 saw its first uptick compared to the previous three quarters.

● I-526E Success Rate: 764 approved / 940 completed cases ≈ 81%

● I-829 Success Rate: 941 approved / 1,005 completed cases ≈ 94%

Despite the slight rise in denials, the EB-5 New Law I-526E approval rate remains above 80%, returning to the historical average (around 85%). At a time when major global immigration policies are tightening or even closing, this high success rate demonstrates that the EB-5 New Law remains a stable and viable legal pathway.

The rise in denial rates highlights the importance of choosing a reliable service provider, selecting compliant EB-5 projects, and properly documenting the lawful source of funds. The value of an experienced professional team cannot be overstated. Globevisa maintains rigorous due diligence standards and extensive experience. Our team is intimately familiar with USCIS' adjudication logic and preferences, enabling us to anticipate risks, minimize Requests for Evidence (RFEs), and improve approval odds.

Clear Processing Timelines – I-526E Average 8 Months

● Regional Center I-526E: 1,667 filed, 764 approved, 176 denied, 9,734 pending. Median processing time: 8.4 months.

● Direct I-526: 98 filed, 5 approved, 5 denied, 736 pending. Median processing time: 22.3 months.

● I-829: 1,013 filed, 941 approved, 64 denied, 6,824 pending. Median processing time: 8.9 months.

Processing time is defined as the median number of months from receipt to completion for all cases adjudicated during the quarter.

FY2026 "Safe Period" – No Official Retrogression Expected

"Official retrogression" refers to the cutoff dates published monthly by the Department of State. For New Law EB-5 applicants, an absence of retrogression allows concurrent filing of I-526E and I-485 (the "concurrent filing" benefit), granting work and travel authorization while waiting for Green Card approval.

For FY2026, the State Department has allocated 4,225  EB-5 reserved visas (32% of the total 13,206 quota). According to IIUSA data, only 922  EB-5 reserved visas were issued in FY2025 (consular processing only).

With visa quotas far exceeding actual issuances, and no significant acceleration in issuance by either overseas consulates or USCIS, it is reasonable to predict that no official retrogression will occur in 2026 – preserving the concurrent filing window.

Hidden Retrogression Warning – The Grandfather Clause Deadline Looms

"Hidden retrogression" refers to the potential future wait time for applicants whose petitions are not yet approved. This depends on multiple factors beyond filing volume and quotas, including actual visa consumption rates – data that USCIS has not yet fully released.

Rough Estimates Based on Available Data:

● Visa Demand: Approved families × visas needed

○ FY2025 total approved families: 3,171

○ Q1 FY2026 approved families: 764

○ Estimated visa demand: (3,171 + 764) × 2 = ~7,870 visas (average ~2 visas per family)

○ Minus ~922 visas issued = remaining demand of ~6,900 visas

● Visa Supply: Available reserved visas

○ FY2026 New Law reserved quota: 4,225

○ Estimated ~2,000 unused FY2025 visas carried over

○ Total estimated FY2026 supply: ~6,200+ visas

As supply and demand are roughly balanced, it is reasonable to infer that hidden retrogression for New Law EB-5 may already be emerging. Applicants not yet filed should prepare accordingly. However, the silver lining is that the backlog of legacy EB-5 petitioners is being cleared quickly. Once that backlog is resolved, the full annual EB-5 visa quota will be available for New Law applicants, helping ease future retrogression.

The Real Urgency: Grandfather Clause Protection Expires September 30, 2026

At this point, the greater concern is not retrogression, but the fact that the EB-5 New Law's grandfather clause expires in just 4 months – on September 30, 2026.

● File before September 30, 2026: Your petition is protected by the grandfather clause. Even if future policy changes, USCIS must adjudicate under the rules in effect at the time of filing.

● File after September 30, 2026: Your petition may face uncertain risks, including higher investment thresholds, increased filing fees, and potential processing delays.

For families considering EB-5, filing now to secure a priority date and lock in grandfather clause protection – along with the current $800,000 investment threshold – is the most critical step.

Globevisa: Your Trusted Partner in EB-5

With over 15 years of deep expertise in the EB-5 space, Globe Visa operates more than 50 integrated offices across six continents and has helped over 5,000 families apply for U.S. Green Cards. Since the New Law took effect in 2022, we have successfully assisted with more than 20 EB-5 project offerings, achieving industry milestones including 30+ group approvals in a single month and the fastest documented filing timeline of just 21 days.

Globe Visa is a proud member of IIUSA (Invest in the USA) , ranked among the Global Top 25 EB-5 Immigration Agencies, and recognized with the 2024 I-829 Approval Contribution Award and 2024 I-526 Approval Contribution Award.