Investment Insights | Why I Don’t Make Investment Decisions Beyond My Expertise

Hello everyone. Today, we will continue our discussion on the third category of investment immigration: pathways involving complex financial products.

The programs we will cover include the US EB-5 visa, the €500,000 investment funds in Portugal and Italy, the €250,000 fund in Hungary, Singapore’s Section 13O scheme (ranging from SGD 5 million to 20 million), New Zealand’s Active Investor Plus visa (NZD 5 million to 10 million), and the Hong Kong Capital Investment Entrant Scheme requiring an HKD 30 million investment.

I must admit that I am not an expert in complex financial structures or advanced market theories. If you are looking for absolute certainties—like predicting whether global real estate prices will rise next year—I simply do not know. Is there a definitively "correct" answer when it comes to predicting the performance of these financial products? I believe there never is. However, my goal is to provide solid industry background knowledge to help you make informed and prudent decisions.

A Closer Look at the US EB-5 Program

Let’s start with the US EB-5 program, which remains one of the most popular avenues for investment immigration globally, currently requiring an $800,000 investment. The technical framework is highly complex. We recently went through extensive internal training—the US immigration examination involves over 400 questions, which I reviewed multiple times. While I have gained a deep understanding of the EB-5 details, I will focus on the broader strategic perspective here.

Many people ask me, "Is this $800,000 investment safe?" Or, "Are the projects Globevisa offers completely risk-free?" My honest answer is: I do not know. Some might view this as irresponsible, but it is the truth. Our predictive capabilities are limited. Even the best-structured project can be derailed by unforeseen macroeconomic events, such as a global pandemic. When it comes to absolute future financial security, not only do I not have the answer, but I also do not believe anyone is qualified to guarantee one.

You might wonder, "If industry professionals don't have the answers, how are clients supposed to choose a project?" While I don't have a crystal ball, I can share our project selection methodology to show you how we mitigate risks.

First and foremost, these are high-barrier investments. If you lack financial expertise and rely solely on blind judgment, you are highly likely to suffer losses. Personally, I recognize my limitations; I am a highly self-aware layman when it comes to institutional finance. Instead of making speculative judgments, I strictly adhere to rigorous prudential principles.

The Importance of Meeting the Ultimate Controllers

For instance, with programs like EB-5, I can confidently say that I have personally met with the fund managers, CEOs, CFOs, and founders—the ultimate controllers—of every single project we distribute. Beyond the technical requirements of reviewing the Private Placement Memorandum (PPM), passing internal compliance, and hiring independent third parties for financial and technical due diligence, I still feel the heavy weight of fiduciary responsibility.

Therefore, I rely on a more traditional business approach: I need to meet our partners face-to-face. I need to hear their story and ensure it makes logical sense. While this might not sound entirely scientific in the digital age, human intuition and direct interaction remain invaluable.

We once evaluated a large project in Los Angeles. On paper, using publicly available data, everything looked fine. It was backed by a prominent developer. However, the ultimate controlling shareholder refused to meet with me, even via a video call. You don't need to charter a helicopter to show me around Los Angeles, take me to fancy restaurants, or present beautiful PowerPoint slides with executives boasting impressive titles. I simply needed a traditional conversation with the controller to understand their motivations and vision for the project. Because they refused to meet, we declined the partnership.

Globevisa is a leading global distributor for EB-5. If a project relies heavily on this funding channel but the principal refuses to speak with what could be their largest distribution partner, I have to assume there are underlying issues. Under those circumstances, we simply will not sell it.

Two Non-Negotiable Principles for Partnership

The EB-5 program has a history of over 30 years, resulting in a vast amount of industry data. When selecting partners, we follow two strict rules.

First, we do not work with anyone who has a poor track record. Some argue this approach is too broad and dismisses potential opportunities. However, with so many options available in the market, why risk working with someone with a history of compliance issues? I would rather miss out on a project than expose our clients to unnecessary risks.

Second, we rarely partner with entirely new players. This industry has existed for decades, and there are plenty of experienced professionals with excellent track records. There is no reason to pay "tuition" for newcomers to learn the ropes at our clients' expense.

My personal style is to sit down with all ultimate controllers to assess the partnership. I suppress the urge to chase flashy opportunities and strictly adhere to these rules: no partnerships with industry novices, and no partnerships with anyone holding a negative track record, regardless of how lucrative their current offer might seem.

Additionally, I prefer to avoid formal business dinners. I usually opt for coffee or meetings in their office. In cross-border business, lavish dinners often involve lengthy pleasantries and discussions about wine, which I find inefficient. A focused conversation over coffee allows us to seriously evaluate the business at hand.

Staying Within Our Circle of Competence

Occasionally, our sales and marketing teams suggest that we adopt the overly optimistic sales pitches used by some project developers. I always remind everyone in our company to stay grounded: we are an immigration consultancy, not Warren Buffett or Duan Yongping. The most accomplished investors are incredibly conservative with their words. They operate strictly within their circle of competence and refrain from making definitive guarantees.

We should never assume we can completely see through a project. Even if someone claims to be an expert in wind power, the US hospitality sector, housing trends, or regional rental yields, I usually ask them: "Can you accurately predict the real estate prices in your own hometown? Can you forecast the occupancy rate of a local hotel?" If you cannot do that locally, where do you get the confidence to assure clients about the exact future of an asset on the other side of the globe? We must never operate with such unfounded hubris.

The Lesson from "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"

Where does my healthy respect—and apprehension—for financial markets come from? Years ago, I read a famous book called A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Later, I reread the English version carefully. Its core theory is stark and backed by extensive data analysis: when you expand the timeline, the vast majority of actively managed, heavily promoted funds fail to outperform the broader stock market. In other words, a passive buy-and-hold strategy for a broad index over a decade will beat 99% of those funds. That book, with its rigorous data, instilled in me a deep caution regarding complex financial products.

The Self-Awareness of the Everyday Investor

When dealing with financial products, fund companies will inevitably present spectacular forecasts. Financial markets define top-tier participants as "accredited" or "qualified investors." If you are genuinely a qualified investor with extensive financial expertise, you can ignore my advice. But I am not, and neither are most of our clients.

As everyday investors, we must be highly self-aware: we should not trust our own unverified financial judgments, because we are highly susceptible to being misled by sales rhetoric.

Therefore, the most crucial takeaway is this: do not make blind judgments. In uncertain situations, the more conservative your approach, the better. For example, if you are looking at the Hong Kong investment immigration program and you are a conservative investor like me, what should you do? Invest in government bonds, because they are transparent and easy to understand. Between public and private funds, opt for public funds, as they are subject to stricter regulatory oversight, higher disclosure requirements, and higher entry thresholds. Most private equity structures are simply too opaque for non-professionals to fully evaluate.

If you are not an accredited financial professional, do not let complex financial jargon dictate your decisions. Rely on genuinely professional advisors, utilize objective data (including AI analytical tools), but do not make impulsive choices. We either rely on top-tier professionals to guide us, or we choose the most conservative, transparent path available.

True Expertise is Grounded in Humility

While I am not an active investor, I read extensively. Recently, I reviewed literature from prominent investors like Charlie Munger and Li Lu. I have formed a consistent observation: the most capable people are the most humble. If you ask me how to judge someone's true capability, I look at their humility. The people I respect the most in the business world are incredibly modest.

Top investors consistently emphasize that they only operate within their narrow circle of competence—understanding perhaps just one or two industries or a handful of companies. Beyond that, they readily admit their ignorance. If legendary figures like Charlie Munger and Li Lu can admit this, then I am certainly comfortable admitting my own limitations. Recognizing this is vital when navigating complex investment products.

I realize I have been quite talkative today—we are already 15 minutes into this recording, and I have just finished the prologue! Let's consider this episode the introduction to investment immigration. In our next piece, we will dive deeply into the specific investment products.

That concludes our discussion for today. If you are interested in fully compliant investment immigration programs, please feel free to reach out to us.

Thank you.

Disclaimer: Any reference to "Hong Kong" herein strictly denotes the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China (HKSAR).