2026 EB-5 Case Processing Progress Summary and Analysis: Rural Projects Are Faster, but These Two Variables Warrant Caution

Recently, the American Immigrant Investor Alliance (AIIA) obtained detailed statistics from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request, covering I-526 and I-526E petition receipts, approvals, and denials as of May 31, 2026, broken down by country, Targeted Employment Area (TEA) category, and filing date. This batch of data helps clarify the current backlog and processing progress for the new EB-5 categories.

Note: The "processing progress" below refers to the priority date distribution of cases that have already received adjudication results; "approval rate" refers to the ratio of approvals to denials among adjudicated cases, and the final approval rate may change as processing continues.

I. Total Applications: Mainland China Applicants Temporarily Lead, India Close Behind

Since the EB-5 new law took effect in March 2022, through May 31, 2026, USCIS has received a total of 19,179 applications.

Sources of applications: Mainland China ranks first

● Mainland China: 9,271 applications, accounting for about 48%, ranking first

● India: 5,071 applications, accounting for about 26%, closely following

Category distribution: Rural slightly exceeds urban high-unemployment

● Rural projects: accounting for 49%

● Urban high-unemployment projects: accounting for 45%

● Total rural applications have already surpassed the urban high-unemployment category

Choices of Mainland China applicants

● Rural projects: 57%

● Urban high-unemployment projects: 43%

This distribution may be related to factors such as faster processing for rural projects, quotas, and agency recommendations.

II. Processing Priority: Rural Category Progress Clearly Ahead

Among the applicant groups since the implementation of the new policy whose priority dates are as of May 31, 2026, comparing the processing data of all countries together can more clearly show USCIS's processing priorities for different reserved categories and different countries. The data shows the following characteristics:

● Processing for the urban high-unemployment category is relatively slow

The processing progress of Mainland China applicants is mainly concentrated among applicants who filed in the second quarter of 2023. India applicants are processing slightly faster than Mainland China applicants, with processing progress mainly concentrated among applicants who filed in the first quarter of 2025.

● The processing priority of the rural category is reflected

Whether for Mainland China or India, the average processing progress of rural category applicants has advanced to applicants who filed in the third quarter of 2025.

III. Approval Rate Comparison: EB-5 Leads Other Major Countries

Since the implementation of the new policy through May 31, 2026, data shows:

The success rates for China and India are between 88% and 89%; overall, these are countries with relatively high success rates.

Referring to information officially released by USCIS (data as of June 31, 2026), the overall EB-5 approval rate is about 80%, maintaining a high level among currently mainstream traditional immigrant destinations under the new EB-5 policy.

IV. Data Conclusions

● Rural projects are more suitable for applicants hoping to obtain green cards as quickly as possible

In the urban high-unemployment category, India applicants are processing slightly faster than Mainland China applicants; however, in the rural category, the processing speed difference between countries is not significant, and the overall processing speed is indeed faster.

● The success rate of the new EB-5 policy remains leading among traditional immigrant destinations

Based on adjudicated cases, the average success rate of the new EB-5 policy is about 80%, which is at a relatively high level among traditional immigrant destinations.

● Official visa retrogression has not yet appeared; it is still a window period for "concurrent filing"

The so-called "concurrent filing" refers to applicants in the United States simultaneously submitting the I-526E immigrant petition and the I-485 adjustment of status application, thereby legally remaining in the United States while waiting for the green card and applying for a work permit and advance parole.

Although in both the rural and urban high-unemployment categories, the adjudicated volume of I-526E is still far below the filing volume, the timing of visa retrogression is affected by multiple factors such as the number of green card quotas, processing speed, and the number of applications by country, and it is uncertain when retrogression will appear. What is certain is that before official visa retrogression appears, for applicants hoping to achieve rapid residence in the United States through "concurrent filing," the current period is still a window worth noting.

V. Variables That Need Attention

● On January 1, 2027, the investment amount will automatically increase: According to the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022, the minimum EB-5 investment amount will undergo its first automatic adjustment on January 1, 2027, based on CPI-U inflation data, and thereafter every five years. Based on industry estimates using current inflation data, the TEA category investment amount is expected to increase to a range of approximately USD 900,000 to USD 937,500. The final amount shall be subject to the official publication by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security in the Federal Register. Applicants who file before January 1, 2027 will still follow the current USD 800,000 investment standard.

● Visa retrogression risk: Once retrogression appears in a certain category or country, the policy benefit of concurrent filing will disappear.

The data already illustrates the issue: the rural category processes faster, has a higher approval rate, and official visa retrogression has not yet appeared, so the concurrent filing window remains open. But policy benefits will not last forever—the investment amount increase in 2027 is already set, and the arrival of visa retrogression is only a matter of time.

For applicants hoping to lock in green card eligibility as soon as possible, the key now is not "whether to apply," but "which project to choose and whom to work with."

Since the new policy, Globevisa has successfully assisted in raising funds for more than 25 projects, and nearly half of the projects have been completed and opened. The average cycle for recently approved immigrant petitions (I-526E) is about 10 months. Combo cards are approved in an average of 6 months, and many clients can successfully obtain green cards in less than 2 years.